Jane Hamsher over at firedoglake does the math, and what it demonstrates is just how much trouble Barack Obama is actually in:
There are 435 seats on the House. Of those, 257 are filled by Democrats and 178 by Republicans. Which means a majority is 218. The Republicans have vowed to vote against health care, period. The Democrats can pass health care on their own, but if they lose 40 of their own, they only have 217 votes.
There are 57 Democrats who signed the July 30 letter saying that they "simply cannot vote" for a bill that "at minimum" does not have a public plan. There are 7 more not listed on the letter who have pledged to vote against any bill that does not have a robust public plan. That makes 64 Democrats who won't vote for the "co-ops" that both Kathleen Sibelius and Robert Gibbs say the White House is "open" to.
What that means, of course, is that if the 64 Democrats pledged to a public option stick to their pledge, there will be no House bill that can pass in the Senate. It also means there will be no bill from the Senate that will pass in the House.
This is catastrophic for one - and only one - person: Barack Obama.
That's because only Barack Obama has to have a health care/insurance bill. Republicans certainly don't need one. Progressive pro-public option Democrats can let Obamacare die and live to fight another day, no matter how unpleasant that may be. And conservative and moderate Democrats can claim they tried their best and move on. Only Barack Obama has to have this bill.
If Obama can't get some version of Obamacare passed with majorities in both the House and the Senate, his presidency is, for all intents and purposes, over. He has managed to paint himself into the Mother of All Corners.
Dennis get out of the basement, go outside and hobble around and get some fresh air will ya? You're getting way ahead of yourself. You sound like Bill O'Reilly talking about WMDs in Iraq in late April 2003. Remember how he was going to turn on Bush along with his legion of followers if those caches of weapons didn't turn up?
Posted by: markg8 | August 17, 2009 at 12:18 PM
That's not exactly a substantive rebuttal of my post, Mark.
Posted by: Dennis the Peasant | August 17, 2009 at 12:48 PM
From CNN, that bastion of conservatism: "Democratic senator: Public health insurance option dead"
http://tiny.cc/F3HnS
The fat lady might not be singing, but she's at least backstage gargling lemon water.
Posted by: David | August 17, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Sure it is Dennis. You are declaring catastrophic failure when it remains to be seen if the effort will in fact fail. You declare that in the event it does fail for all intents and purposes, Obama's presidency will be over.
I am reminding you that the overarching justification for invading Iraq was WMDs Saddam Hussein didn't have and that truly catastrophic mistake not only didn't end the Bush presidency, thanks to folks like you he went on to win another term. As did Bill Clinton after he failed to pass a health care reform bill.
You may wish your predictions come true, that doesn't mean they will.
Posted by: markg8 | August 17, 2009 at 01:18 PM
"You may wish your predictions come true, that doesn't mean they will."
Were you reading that when you typed it?
Posted by: PeterUK | August 17, 2009 at 01:40 PM
Mark-
Actually, I'm not saying anything in my post that Jane Hamser isn't implying in hers. If she's part of the VRWC, Obama is in very deep trouble... As are you.
Posted by: Dennis the Peasant | August 17, 2009 at 01:44 PM
Dennis, Obama expounds his insurance system with clarity and precision. A death panel isn't required,Obama will bore you to death.
Posted by: PeterUK | August 17, 2009 at 03:19 PM