This Year's Model...

Well, here comes a rough idea of what we have to look forward to in 2010:

U.S. unemployment will surge to 10 percent this year and the budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion next year, both higher than previous Obama administration forecasts because of a recession that was deeper and longer than expected, White House budget chief Peter Orszag said.

Then there is this:

The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that the U.S. economy will shrink 2.8 percent this year, worse than the 1.2 percent contraction the OMB projected in May. For next year, the budget office said the gross domestic product will grow 2.0 percent, less than the 3.2 percent expected in May. By 2011, the economy would be well on its way to recovery, growing at a 3.8 percent annual rate, according to the administration’s mid-year economic review, released this morning.

This after the Obama Administration spent a month doing the "the economy is starting to turn the corner" happy talk thing. Good job there, guys. Nothing like this sort of thing to build credibility on economic issues.

With this sort of news coming out of the White House and the Office of Management and Budget, does anyone think Congressional Democrats are going to be fired up about going it alone on $1 trillion worth of controversial health care legislation and then pass Cap and Trade on top of that? Or do you think they're going to be looking at these numbers - and the polls - and go "Whoa"? For their sake, I hope the latter.

As a Democrat once famously said, "It's the economy, stupid."

The question is this: Will (This Year's Model of Ivy League) Stupid finally get it?

Comments

[markg8]

For their sake, I hope the latter.

That's some fine concern trolling there Dennis.

[Dennis the Peasant]

Once again, your objection reeks of substance.

[JeffS]

As a Democrat once famously said, "It's the economy, stupid."

Bill Clinton, for all of his problems and lack of solid achievements, did know how to NOT run a country into the ground. Which is an achievement, especially in comparison to Obama.

[ThomasD]

You are assuming Obama does not want to run the economy into the ground.

I'll need to see some evidence before I believe that one.

[Neson]

do you think they're going to be looking at these numbers - and the polls - and go "Whoa"? For their sake, I hope the latter.

For OUR sakes I hope--I don't give shit about congressional Democrats

[Dennis the Peasant]

Nelson-

That's probably what I should have said in the first place.

[markg8]

No kidding. Hence my comment above.

[bblack]

I think his approval ratings have gone down because he promised us change, and all we got is change...(coins-leftovers). Terrible!!! Now, that’s all we are left with..some pocket change.

[jcw]

Well, at least Rhode Island is fairing well in this economy,

http://www.projo.com/news/content/STATE_SHUT_DOWN_08-25-09_LRFGFCE_v31.3cf4f87.html

but then again, maybe not. Think how much money we'd save if we just shut down D.C. for 12 days.

[markg8]

It's pretty fucking brutal what's happening to all state governments, especially after Bush decided to block grant Medicaid payments to them and let them figure out which providers to stiff or poor people to lop off the rolls a few years ago. Good thing that stimulus money got out to them or they'd all be like Ahnold's California.

[richard mcenroe]

Yep, blocking them Medicaid payments is putting potholes in my pavement. Can't be the $15 billion my state will spend on illegals this year, or the billions it spends on unelected state commissions that do nothing but duplicate existing functions of the government, or the billions upon billions we're paying out in pensions to state workers beyond anything private employees could ever hope to see (we already know, thanks to GM, that private employers can't afford to pay them).

Nope. Hadda be Bush.

[markg8]

Nah in your case it was Ahnold. When are you going to realize you can't have your tax cut cake and eat it too Richard?

[just passin by]

California's budget crisis had NOTHING to do with the Democratic legislature...NOTHING I tell you!

[markg8]

How's that workin out for ya?

Campaign Statements, 2003

These statements were extracted from "Arnold's Agenda to Bring California Back", as published on the joinarnold.org web site in October 2003.

Clean Air & Water

"Cut Air Pollution Statewide by Up to 50% -- and Restore
Independence From Foreign Oil."

"Invest in Hydrogen Highways."

"Fight for federal dollars for hydrogen fuel development."

"Expedite clean fuel transportation."

"Get gross-polluting vehicles off the road now."

"Protect California's air quality standards for industrial facilities"

"Reduce Ocean Pollution. I will take action to protect our coasts from sewage and storm water pollution. I will direct state agencies to incorporate pollution-free coastal development techniques, accelerate the repair of leaking sewer systems, and fully implement existing water quality programs, such as municipal storm water permit programs and Total Maximum Daily Load programs. California must handle and treat its sewage under the requirements of the Clean Water Act to protect our oceans and beaches and the people who use them."

"As Governor, I will urge the Congress to fully restore CAL-FED funding immediately. With proper leadership and resources, CAL-FED can implement the most effective ways of making the best use of our water supplies and encouraging economic growth in California."

"As Governor, I will direct Cal/EPA and the Resources
Agency to completely overhaul their recent "California Watershed Management MOU" from a bureaucratic do-nothing document to an action plan that will clean up California's most endangered watersheds now."

"As Governor I will also support the extension of tax credits for businesses and commercial establishments which install on-grid solar photovoltaic and other renewable generation systems."

"Incentives will be established, including a Green
Building Bank, using private financing and targeted public loan guarantees, to swiftly retrofit as many buildings as possible, reducing the need for new power plants, saving money for businesses and taxpayers alike, and preserving air
quality."

"Increase Renewable Energy. As Governor, I will fully endorse California's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which requires that 20% of the state's total power supplies be generated from renewable sources by 2017. My Administration will also direct the California Energy Commission to define incentives and implement strategies that will target achievement of the 20% standard a full seven years early - - by 2010 - - and set the state on course to derive 33% of its power from renewable sources by 2020."

Jobs and the economy

"Repeal the Car Tax: In 2003, the vehicle license fee increase cost California residents and businesses more than $4 billion. Car owners in the state have seen their vehicle license fee increase by 300% from last year. The car tax is regressive and hurts all Californians."

"Oppose the $3 billion split roll property tax increase proposed by Cruz Bustamante: Lt. Governor Bustamante wants to roll back existing Constitutional protections so that he can collect $3 billion more from property owners. According to a 1992 Governor's Office of Planning and Research study, a similar split roll property tax would have reduced the number of jobs in California by nearly 75,000 jobs and reduced personal income by $11.4 billion. That's exactly the wrong direction to take California's economy."

"Stop the 60% Unemployment Insurance Hike on Businesses: California has the easiest eligibility requirements in the country, along with the largest Unemployment Insurance system in the nation. As a result of letting the UI system go unchecked, the cost of insurance for California businesses will increase by 60% in January 2004 - an action that will be directly responsible for killing more jobs in the state. If elected, I will eliminate this hike by taking action to reduce unnecessary costs in this program."

"Implement a 6 Point Energy Plan to reform the current regulatory framework in order to encourage private sector investment and protect ratepayers.

1. Create a uniform energy strategy to stimulate private investment and align the 13 state energy agencies to support that strategy
2. Reform the wholesale power market
3. Assure adequate and diverse fuel for power generation
4. Encourage cost effective conservation by increasing demand response to changing electricity markets
5. Enact electricity reserves requirements for power generators
6. Explore ways to lower the cost of Gray Davis' overpriced power purchase agreements"

"As Governor, I will reform the Unfair Competition Law to:
- Preserve the power of state, county, and city attorneys to bring lawsuits on behalf of the public
- Require that lawyers and plaintiffs represent the public interest, not their private pocketbooks
- Require public notice of settlements
- Require settlements to be approved by the court"

"Propose legislation to limit payment of "front pay" as damages for wrongful termination suits

Propose legislation to require age discrimination plaintiffs to show adverse impact from the employment decision"

"Work with the legislature to:
a. Implement objective and enforceable utilization guidelines and establish well defined networks of providers.
b. Eliminate excessive permanent disability payouts by adopting American Medical Association guidelines for impairment ratings.
c. Reduce unnecessary litigation and judicial involvement by adopting an effective Independent Medical Review process.

Initiate a comprehensive review of the State Compensation Insurance Fund to assess its current financial condition and take action as necessary.

Appoint a new team to the Division of Workers' Compensation and make cost containment job one"

"Review all regulations enacted under Gray Davis to determine if they are consistent with the enacting legislation AND minimize the economic impact to the regulated communities. To start with, I will work with the Building Standards Commission to adopt a sensible 'PEX' Plastic Pipe code to reduce the cost of building in California as recommended in the Uniform Plumbing Code. Californians pay as much as $53 million more in building costs as a result of prohibitions on the use of plastic pipes in buildings"

Neighborhoods

"Working with local officials, my Administration will develop an Infill Incentives Package to help local governments deal with the jobs/housing imbalance throughout the State and to spur smarter development by providing a mechanism for planners to identify and evaluate redevelopment of blighted and underutilized sites, allowing cities to accommodate mixed use, compact development and urban infill growth while curtailing urban sprawl."

"In addition, my Administration will direct appropriate agencies to draft a plan to rapidly complete the cleanup of brownfield sites, especially the thousands of locations with leaking underground petroleum storage tanks, enabling these sites to be developed for productive commercial uses."

Parks and open space

"As Governor, I will protect California's coastline by fighting for a permanent ban on all oil drilling in coastal waters and will urge the federal government to purchase the remaining offshore oil leases as it has in Florida."

"I will protect the integrity of the California Coastal Commission, which for decades has served to protect our valuable coastal resources."

"As Governor, I will take action to update the plan to accelerate improvement of Tahoe's waters, trails and wildlife, in order to "Keep Tahoe Blue.""

"I will order the Resources Agency to develop a comprehensive facility assessment and improvement plan for state parks, beaches, and coastal access, with emphasis placed on investments that enhance local economies and access for California's seniors and the disabled."

"As Governor I will propose establishment of a Sierra Nevada Mountains Conservancy."

Schools and education

"As Governor, I will:
Make sure California's schools have the tools they need to serve California's students. We will start by:
1. Letting Schools Make Decisions and Take Responsibility
2. Investing in High-Quality Teachers
3. Meeting Special Needs
4. Empowering Parents
5. Building More Schools, More Efficiently"

"I strongly support Proposition 98 and I will protect California's commitment to education funding. And by empowering local communities to make decisions, we can spend that money better."

"We need to stop hiring people to work in the central office and start investing in the men and women who work with our children - classroom teachers and principals."

"I will work to repeal prescriptive state laws and rescind the burdensome state regulations that serve special interests and waste education dollars on non-instructional uses. "

"SB 1419 demonstrates what's wrong with the top-heavy approach to education under Gray Davis, and I will call for its repeal. Passed in 2002, the bill restricts the ability of school and community college districts to contract out for non-educational services like transportation, maintenance, and landscaping."

"I will work to give principals authority for hiring qualified staff, managing their school's money, choosing instructional strategies and materials that work, and setting class schedules. "

Traffic and transportation

"I will seek to implement innovative, market-based and means of reducing congestion on California's highways - including congestion pricing, eliminating congestion-causing toll booths when they can easily be replaced by technology, and similar measures."

"As Governor, I will ask the federal government to restore to California its fair share of gasoline tax money generated in the state, along with other federal funds, to assist with critical mass transit improvements."