Personally, I Blame Bush...

The next Paul Krugman furrows his wide, gently sloping brow and decides it's all the fault of the vast right-wing conspiracy:

If fiscal stimulus is so great, then why hasn’t the Obama administration’s massive stimulus program helped improve the economy? Well, via Mark Thoma, the answer is that there hasn’t been any net fiscal stimulus, all the Obama administration’s efforts plus the automatic stabilizers have done is mitigate the contractionary impact of state and local policy:

But it’s important to remember that the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is not spending by the federal government; it is spending by all levels of government. And when you look at the contributions to US GDP growth (Table 1.1.2 at the BEA site), total government spending has been a drag on growth over the past two quarters. The increases at the federal level have not been enough to compensate for the spending cuts at the local and state levels.

[.....]

Looked at comprehensively, what the country has been implementing is a mild version of the conservative policy prescription for boosting growth—fire bureaucrats and trim spending. And it’s not working very well. And with continuing economic weakness, state and local governments are set for further trimming even as federal stimulus winds down. This is going to be a disaster. Nothing about having economically pressed jurisdictions lay off huge quantities of teachers is going to improve the situation.

It's like Obama, Reid and Pelosi never existed, isn't it?

Here in Ohio (and we're far from unique in this regard) we have a state constitution that doesn't allow deficit spending. If the state is running a deficit, then the governor and state legislators are legally bound to either cut spending or raise taxes. And guess what? Neither party has shown any inclination to put a tax increase on the table.

That's called bowing to the will of the electorate.

What Little One doesn't understand is this: There is no free lunch. Many states - and even more municipalities - do not have the federal government's luxury of running massive deficits year after year after year. They have to actually choose whether to cut spending or attempt to pass tax increases.

Where Matty less ignorant of the subject, you could accuse him of intellectual bankruptcy. What you can easily accuse him of is intellectual dishonesty. That's because... 

Any fool could have told you two years ago that state and municipal spending was going to contract significantly. Those same fools could have also told you that any fiscal stimulus package - in order to be really effective as stimulus - was going to have to be of a size that compensated for said contractions.

Obama, Reid and Pelosi didn't do that.

Why? Well, in the first place the fiscal stimulus bill wasn't really a stimulus bill. It was pork. It was a warm personal gesture from one portion of the Democratic Party to another portion of the Democratic Party. And in the second place, fiscally conservative and centrist Democrats in the House and Senate wouldn't go along with a larger bill.

This had nothing to do with either fiscal conservatives or fiscal conservatism. It has everything to do with Team Obama's cluelessness in all things economic. 

Comments

[aelfheld]

Nothing about having economically pressed jurisdictions lay off huge quantities of teachers is going to improve the situation.

Hmmm. Might not improve the employment statistics, but would probably be good for the students if they get rid of the union feather-bedders.

[Dennis the Peasant]

It's worth noting that teacher layoffs are the option that taxpayers are choosing. Matty fails to note that passing local referrendums is all that's needed to aviod all them layoffs. For some mysterious reason that ain't happening.

[Steve]

Not so mysterious actually. Taxpayers don't have any money left to pay these referendums. But I'm guessing Matty would miss that.

[DonnieDarko]

You use the term "cluelessness" like it is a bad thing.

[bilejones]

What the fuck is it going to take for people to realize that the cure for a recession is to actually have the recession? Liquidate the malinvestments, write off the debt and allow the orderly transfer of assets from the incompetent to the competent.

[Dave]

You aren't doing yourself any favors by continuing to obsess over Yglesias.

[Dennis the Peasant]

I am not obsessed by Matty. He is useful only in so far as he is extraordinarily efficient at encapsulating progressive stupidity (also known as progressive conventional wisdom) on an almost daily basis. If you insist on wagging a finger at someone, it should be him.

[richard mcenroe]

But Dennis, Obama, Reid and Pelosi DON'T exist. They appear in a cloud of pixie dust like the Tooth Fairy and bestow a couple of hundred bucks from Obie's "stash" on welfare recipients in Detroit and Harlem, or a few hundred billion bucks on almost exclusively Democratic cities and districts(as the George Mason study of the "stimulus" documents),and then they vanish in a flash of news-camera lights and a shower of hosannahs...

[richard mcenroe]

Dennis, I can recommend waving a finger at progressives, it's great fun. Watching their little heads swivel back and forth trying to follow it, why, it's like owning a puppy...

...a very stupid, unhousebroken puppy.

[Wm T Sherman]

Huge quantities of teachers, hey?

Damned awkward writing.

[David]

The Anchorage Alaska School District budget 10 years ago: $448,655,706

The Anchorage Alaska School District budget this year: $830,840,080

The Anchorage Alaska School District increase in total student enrollment over that period: 0 (actually less- enrollment has declined)

...case closed. Screw these people- screw them and the horse they rode in on. Adjusted for inflation that's over half again as much money to "teach" (Anchorage schools continue to fail to meet NCLB standards) fewer children.

The district is quite defensive about this:

We’ve heard from community members concerned about the growth in the number of ASD employees and the value of the current workforce. These concerns prompted us to prepare a 10-year comparison of the budgeted number of employees by job classification.

The report shows that 1,023.28 more full-time equivalent employees were budgeted in fiscal year 2010-11 than 10 years ago in 2000-01.

The top five of 12 budgeted job categories for 2010-11 include:

1. Teachers (3,636.93 FTEs)
2. Teacher assistants (880.51 FTEs)
3. Clerical (403.65 FTEs)
4. Custodial (370.8 FTEs)
5. Technical (287.37 FTEs)

Administration ranks last with 39 FTEs. Principals rank ninth with 151.5 FTEs.

In the 10-year timeframe, the district has:

* added two new schools and 6 new charter schools
* added full-day kindergarten at 13 schools
* increased nursing positions to full-time
* added elementary school Heath and Physical Education teachers to accommodate increased teacher planning time as negotiated in contracts
* increased Special Education personnel and personnel providing services for special needs students
* increased elementary school counselors and personnel assisting students needing additional academic help
* increased English Language Learner and Title VII Indian Education positions
* increased the amount of Information Technology personnel

While new schools only slightly increase the number of teachers, because they remain relative to student enrollment, additional clerical, custodial and administration personnel are required to complete the new learning environments.

Greatly adding to the district experience, the rise in diversity at ASD over this timeframe has meant that additional services are in the students’ best interest.

Within one year of entering the country, for example, English language learners are required to take tests along with their peers regardless of their English comprehension. Their tests reflect on the district’s overall Annual Yearly Progress.

Minority populations have increased while the majority has decreased every year since 1998. Today, ethnically diverse students represent more than half (50.77 percent) of the population, compared to 38 percent in 2000.

It's for the kids, you see...

Like I said, screw these people. Screw them until the cows come home. What is going on in Anchorage illustrates in a nutshell where spending untrammeled by anything other than a desire to "do more" for people (some people- in this case "the children"- in the case of the stimulus virtually every entitled fragment of society out there) heads.

David

[Dennis the Peasant]

David-

What's your point?

[Eric Blair]

I think he was agreeing with you in a roundabout way.

[TmjUtah]

Dennis, it's not about policy.

It's about revolution.

I know I get old, but if you look at Team Obama's moves from the first snap, it's been Cloward-Piven without even a feint to normalcy.

Stimulus? Payoff to the entrenched political class (Republicans were bought cheap) to buy as much time before they woke up (prior to November 2010) and began to resist.

Tripling the size of government? Nobody in charge of any Senate or Congressional office has a fucking clue what regulations, agencies, guidelines, administrative rules, and miscellaneous forms were generated this year. Nobody but the people behind Obama, who have worked for years for this one two year window of opportunity.

It's destruction as an objective. Tomorrow? Feh. It will belong to The Betters of Us All...

Gonna be a long summer.

[David]

Too roundabout. Dennis is right, I was just POd about something I heard on the news on the way home and then came in and read Dennis's post. I typed in major irritated mode and hit send before I'd really thought the whole point through.

I guess the point, having said that, is that government- whether a school district or the feds, is full of people who all appear to believe, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, that the act of spending more money can solve anything in and of itself. Then along come the chattering "experts" like Krugman or Thoma and sit in their amen corner promoting notions like the one we see at play here- "of course the stimulus didn't work: we didn't spend enough to offset those thieving bastards at the state and local level who aren't willing to hold up their end (and, by implication, keep spending like drunken sailors, too)." Dennis hit that on the head- the stimulus actually didn't work because, at the end, it wasn't intended to stimulate anything except partisan political interests. Of course, though, even if it had been truly intended to revive our economy, there's pretty much no evidence that would have worked either.

Calls to mind that 'droid in the Star Wars films- if you are not lucky enough to live in New Jersey...

...and I never thought I'd see "being lucky" and "living in New Jersey" tied together in the same sentence...

...considering the state of government these days you might as well admit, "We're doomed."

David

[Dennis the Peasant]

Eric-

I knew that.

Really.

[Allen]

It is a rather curious new economic theory. Not only does government spending boost the economy it's essential that government spending increase to maintain the economy.

I suppose you could call it Keynesian with the Yglesias power boost economics.

With deep thinkers like this what could go wrong?

[Christopher]

So what would have been appropriate government spending? Defense/infrastructure (ie, raw and finished materials purchasing, and jobs for skilled and unskilled labor alike)? A different combination of labor vs people skills (teachers, social work, etc)? None?

I'm asking in all seriousness since I've wondered about it quite a bit, but live in the land of progressives 'r us (Seattle area), so finding candid, thoughtful conversation is, well, difficult to say the least.

[richard mcenroe]

Christopher,the Constitution very clearly delineates the Federal Government's defined duties, which tells you what they should be spending on.

[Christopher]

Richard,

The Constitution clearly delineates a great many things, and if we had a strictly cosntitutionalist government (I'm talking both parties here), then I'd not have asked, nor needed to do so.

However, within the framework of how our government actually 'interprets' the Constitution and legislates, I'm still curious what others think might have been a more effective response, since somehow, there were going to spend money.